DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 120056
SWODY1
SPC AC 120054

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MN...
A BROKEN LINE OF LOW-TOPPED TSTMS CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NEWD ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH ACROSS ERN MN...AND WILL ENCOUNTER AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASINGLY MEAGER INSTABILITY. A NARROW WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG-SVR WIND GUST AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO GIVEN OBSERVED 0-1 KM LAYER SHEAR OF
30-40 KTS /PER REGIONAL VWP DATA/ AND HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH...BUT
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THIS THREAT SHOULD COME TO AN END
BY LATE EVENING.

...MID-MO VALLEY SWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND THE ARKLATEX...
A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY SAT MORNING.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA...COMBINED WITH DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER IMPULSE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL JET...WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS. WHILE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING/LOCATION OF TSTM
INITIATION...MUCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG AND MODERATE SHEAR
WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS.

..ROGERS.. 10/12/2013

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