DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 130557
SWODY1
SPC AC 130555

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING EWD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN TOWARDS THE ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS. PHASING OF A SRN STREAM UPPER JET WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
PROMOTE A GENERAL INCREASE IN TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD...OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
DEEPENING LEE SFC LOW OVER NERN CO. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE NWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. FARTHER
E...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL DECELERATE AS IT APPROACHES THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY.

...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO SFC PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH...WILL
PROMOTE STRENGTHENING SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS BY LATE MORNING. AS THIS
OCCURS...DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD NWD ALONG/E
OF A LEE SFC TROUGH...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE
THIS EVENING.

MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL REMAIN NEAR-NEUTRAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA AND UPSLOPE FLOW WITH MINIMAL
INHIBITION WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED
/E.G. AOB 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE/ BY COOL SFC TEMPERATURES AND THE
PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER...STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT
A FEW INSTANCES OF STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES SPREADING NWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...MORE
SIGNIFICANT MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...AND SUPPORT PRIMARILY
ELEVATED TSTMS INTO EARLY MON MORNING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
MAY EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE CORES GIVEN STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MODERATELY STRONG SHEAR WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING
LAYER. HOWEVER...LIMITING FACTORS SUCH AS MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND
EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE OF TSTMS PRECLUDE A CATEGORICAL RISK UPGRADE.

..ROGERS/GARNER.. 10/13/2013

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