DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 231937
SWODY1
SPC AC 231935

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT WED OCT 23 2013

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE...
AS THE SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
REMAINS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY WHERE THE
FRONT INTERSECTS THE SEA BREEZE...NEAR ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS OR
JUST OFFSHORE.

..KERR.. 10/23/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT WED OCT 23 2013/

...FL...
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. THE AIR MASS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT IS MOIST AND WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
LOW AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK. HOWEVER...RATHER STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING AND WESTERLY COMPONENT TO SURFACE WINDS MAY RESULT
IN SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE FOR A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE
SEA-BREEZE OF SOUTHEAST FL NEAR MIA. LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. LIMITED AREAL AND TEMPORAL COVERAGE
PRECLUDES ADDING SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

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