DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 291631
SWODY1
SPC AC 291629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS
THROUGH WED...WITH THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE BEING
BROAD...POSITIVE-TILT CLOSED LOW/TROUGH NOW OVER NE NV. THE
LOW/TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS THE GRT BASIN LATER
TODAY/TNGT...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS REACHING A N CNTRL WY TO NW AZ
LINE BY 12Z WED. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AND
BACKING OF EXISTING SW MID/UPR-LVL FLOW OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS TNGT
AND EARLY WED.

IN THE MEAN TIME...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ATOP THE
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE PLNS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEUTRAL AT BEST THROUGH EARLY TNGT...WITH NO
NOTABLE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES APPARENT ATTM IN THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER NRN MEX/NM. AT THE SAME TIME...POSITIVE-TILT
OF GRT BASIN TROUGH WILL KEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES RATHER MODEST.
NEVERTHELESS...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE TO SUPPORT
STRONG STORMS AS FAR N AS SRN KS...AND WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR
PRESENT FOR ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORMS...A LARGE PART OF THE S CNTRL
U.S. WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL POCKETS OF
LOCALLY-ENHANCED STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WED.

...SRN/CNTRL PLNS TODAY THROUGH EARLY WED...
A SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE SRN HALF OF THE PLNS AND INTO THE OZARKS THROUGH WED...S OF
STALLING SYNOPTIC-SCALE FRONT OVER NRN PARTS OF KS-MO. FARTHER S...A
SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY SHOULD PERSIST
FROM NW TX ENE INTO NE OK/SW MO.

IN CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY...MID/UPR-LVL CLOUDS STREAMING NEWD FROM E
PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL SUPPRESS LOW-LVL DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION/LAPSE RATE STEEPENING ALONG MUCH OF DRY LINE/LEE
TROUGH IN FAR ERN NM/W TX. COUPLED WITH THE DIFFUSE NATURE OF THAT
FEATURE...EML CAP...AND NEUTRAL /AT BEST/ LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT...POTENTIAL FOR AFTN/EVE STORMS OVER THE REGION APPEARS
MINIMAL..ALTHOUGH NON-ZERO. STORMS MAY...HOWEVER...BECOME MORE
LIKELY OVER WRN AND NW TX AND PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AFTER 06Z
WED AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE GRT BASIN
TROUGH. WHILE DIURNALLY-ENHANCED BOUNDARY LAYER CINH WILL LIMIT
LIKELIHOOD FOR SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT...A CONDITIONAL RISK WILL EXIST
FOR A FEW STORMS WITH SVR HAIL AND POSSIBLY STRONG SFC WINDS GIVEN
40 TO PERHAPS 50 KT SWLY CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
COULD SPREAD AS FAR E/NE AS S CNTRL OK/N CNTRL TX BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR TODAY ALONG AND S OF
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY OVER PARTS OF NW TX AND SW THROUGH NE
OK. WHILE LOW-LVL UPLIFT ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL BE WEAK...IT IS NOT
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A STORM OR TWO COULD ARISE ALONG
IT AND/OR ALONG TERRAIN-INDUCED CIRCULATIONS NEAR THE WICHITA MTNS
AND RED RVR. WERE SUCH DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...AVAILABILITY OF FAIRLY
RICH MOISTURE /PW AOA 1.25 IN/ AND 30-40 KT WSWLY DEEP SHEAR SUGGEST
A LOW CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SVR HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND/OR A
TORNADO.

FARTHER S...A SEPARATE AREA OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR DIURNAL STORMS
MAY FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW TX...THE TX BIG BEND...AND
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF N CNTRL MEXICO...WHERE RICH MOISTURE /PW AOA
1.50 INCHES/ WILL EXIST IN THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT LOW-LVL
UPSLOPE FLOW. WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR ALSO PRESENT FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE...THERE WILL BE A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR ISOLD
SVR HAIL/WIND FROM A POTENTIAL SUPERCELL OR TWO.

..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 10/29/2013

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