DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 200530
SWODY1
SPC AC 200528

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 AM CDT SUN OCT 20 2013

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...DISCUSSION...
A QUIESCENT PATTERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY MON. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
CONUS...WITH PRIMARY SHORTWAVE IMPULSES PIVOTING ACROSS THE N-CNTRL
STATES. ONE OF THESE FEATURES WILL AID IN A SURFACE CYCLONE SHIFTING
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...DEEPENING DURING
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SEWD AND SHOULD REACH THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO SRN HIGH PLAINS BY
EVENING. A PRECEDING COLD FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
NRN FL...WITH TRAILING PORTION ADVANCING NWD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE WRN GULF COAST.

ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FL PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK MID/HIGH-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
DISPLACEMENT OF MODERATE DEEP-LAYER FLOW GENERALLY N OF THE FRONT.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLY MON WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL
WAA REGIME NEAR THE TX GULF COAST AND ON THE PERIPHERY OF SCANT
BUOYANCY RETURNING AHEAD OF THE REINFORCING FRONT NEAR THE RED
RIVER. A STORM OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR THE TX BIG BEND THIS
AFTERNOON.

..GRAMS/COHEN.. 10/20/2013

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