DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 220450
SWODY1
SPC AC 220448

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2013

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
A BROAD AREA OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL OVERLIE MUCH OF
THE ERN CONUS AROUND A DEEP CYCLONE TRACKING NEWD FROM ERN ONTARIO
INTO QUEBEC. ONE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER AREA
OF CYCLONIC FLOW WILL TRACK FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY TO THE OH VALLEY AND WILL BE SUCCEEDED BY ANOTHER IMPULSE
ENTERING THE NRN PLAINS FROM THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES.
DEEP ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE
N/NW OF A REMNANT FRONT ORIENTED NE/SW ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN
STATES. S OF THIS FRONT...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A MOIST/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY AROUND PEAK HEATING...BUT
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...THE FLOW AROUND WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANYING THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE TRACKING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY COULD
ENCOURAGE THE RETURN OF POOR-QUALITY MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SERN-CONUS FRONTAL ZONE INTO PARTS OF ERN MO AND CNTRL/WRN IL. IN
THESE AREAS...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MAY OCCUR INVOF A FRONT
ATTENDANT TO THE LOW AROUND PEAK HEATING...AND SPORADIC LIGHTNING
STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...SINCE CAPE MAY NOT EXTEND
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP INTO ICING LAYERS ALOFT TO SUPPORT GREATER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...GENERAL THUNDERSTORM DELINEATION IS NOT
BEING MADE AT THIS TIME BUT COULD BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
ALSO...COLD MID-LEVEL CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY H5 TEMPERATURES
LOCALLY COLDER THAN -30C WILL OVERLIE THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
SUPPORT CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION OVER THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS. HOWEVER...BUOYANCY PROFILES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE
FOR ANY MORE THAN AN ISOLATED LIGHTING STRIKE OR TWO.

..COHEN/GUYER.. 10/22/2013

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