DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 260530
SWODY1
SPC AC 260528

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 AM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NWRN/WCNTRL TX...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SRN ROCKIES SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ESEWD THEN DIG INTO NWRN TX BY 27/00Z. THIS
FEATURE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION ACROSS NM FRIDAY
AND LATEST THINKING IS CONVECTION WILL RENEW DURING THE EARLY PART
OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
SATURDAY. WHILE SFC ANTICYCLONE IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED ALONG THE TX
COAST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY ADVANCING NWWD ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND NEAR 60F SFC DEW POINTS ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE
BALCONES ESCARPMENT. THIS AIR MASS SHOULD RETURN ACROSS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU INTO THE BIG COUNTRY OF WCNTRL TX AHEAD OF WEAK WIND SHIFT.
ADDITIONALLY...WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
QUITE WEAK THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE STRONG SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR
FROM SERN NM/FAR WEST TX ALONG I-20 TOWARD THE ABI REGION. THIS
PLUME OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO
SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BY
18Z AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE LOWER-MID 70S. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT EXHIBIT SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500
J/KG WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER FLOW AND VEERING WITH HEIGHT TO
SUPPORT A RISK OF A FEW ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...SOME OF WHICH MAY
ROTATE. GREATEST RISK WITH THESE STORMS SHOULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY EXISTS
FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS THAT COULD PRODUCE HAIL GREATER THAN ONE
INCH...AND IF IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR THAT SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SUPERCELLS THEN SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BE
RAISED ACROSS THIS REGION.

..DARROW/PETERS.. 10/26/2013

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