DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 280559
SWODY1
SPC AC 280556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT MON OCT 28 2013

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE WRN AND CENTRAL KS
VICINITY...

...SYNOPSIS...
AS A SRN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE SERN U.S.
MOVES TOWARD/OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...A MUCH LARGER LOW/TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN CONUS.
THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MAKE ONLY LIMITED EWD PROGRESS...BUT THE
OVERALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO EXPAND WITH
TIME...COVERING THE ENTIRE WRN THIRD OF THE U.S. BY THE SECOND HALF
OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW INVOF THE
SERN CO VICINITY BECOMES THE PRIMARY CYCLONE...MOVING SLOWLY EWD
INTO KS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS LOW -- AND A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EWD ACROSS KS INTO MO -- WILL LIKELY FOCUS A BROAD ZONE OF
MAINLY ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY AFTER DARK.

...KS AND VICINITY...
WEAKLY RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TX/OK/KS
REGION THROUGH THE DAY AS THE WRN UPPER LOW EXPANDS. ASSOCIATED
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO HINDER WARM-SECTOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT -- AT LEAST UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING IF NOT ALTOGETHER. WHILE AN ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED CELL OR
TWO MAY EVENTUALLY INITIATE NEAR THE LOW...MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR/N OF THE WARM FRONT DURING
THE EVENING...WHERE INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-LEVEL JET.

THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK -- MAINLY IN THE FORM OF HAIL -- WOULD
EXIST WITH WARM SECTOR CONVECTION...WHERE 500 TO 1000 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE WILL COEXIST WITH A WIND FIELD EXHIBITING
SUBSTANTIAL VEERING/STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHT...THUS FAVORING
SUPERCELL STORMS. WHILE A LOCAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS OR
PERHAPS EVEN A TORNADO WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM BASED AT OR
NEAR THE SURFACE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE REGION -- PARTICULARLY AFTER
DARK WHEN EVEN A WARM SECTOR STORM WOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
ELEVATED ABOVE THE STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. SOME RISK FOR
MARGINAL HAIL MAY SPREAD AS FAR E AS SERN NEB/NWRN MO OVERNIGHT...AS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPANDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION.

..GOSS/CARBIN.. 10/28/2013

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