DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 221954
SWODY1
SPC AC 221952

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CDT TUE OCT 22 2013

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE...
IT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION...DEVELOPING EAST NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA...COULD CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG NORTHERN FLORIDA ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...THE PRESENCE OF
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 40+ KT MID/UPPER FLOW SUPPORTS AT
LEAST LOW SEVERE WIND PROBABILITIES... IN THE PRESENCE OF
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...BUT FAIRLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND WEAK TO MODEST CAPE.

..KERR.. 10/22/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT TUE OCT 22 2013/

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE NATION TODAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTH FL...SEPARATING A MOIST
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE FL PENINSULA FROM A CLOUDY
AND GENERALLY STABLE AIR MASS OVER AL/GA. RADAR/SATELLITE LOOPS
SHOW A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF
APALACHEE BAY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND
WILL CROSS NORTH FL THIS AFTERNOON. BROKEN CLOUD COVER ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 80S...RESULTING IN
MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE EXISTING
STORMS TO NEAR JAX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW SUFFICIENT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR A RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
STORMS MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST AND DIURNAL COOLING COMMENCES.

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