ACUS01 KWNS 211948
SWODY1
SPC AC 211946
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2013
VALID 212000Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS OTLK. REMOVED POST-COLD FRONTAL AREAS
FROM THUNDER IN CNTRL TX AND ADDED EXTREME S CNTRL/SE LA TO GENERAL
TSTM FCST. ISOLD THUNDER MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF SRN LA LATE
TNGT/EARLY TUE AS ELEVATED WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASE AHEAD OF
SE TX SHORTWAVE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...CONTINUED SFC HEATING MAY
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WDLY SCTD SHOWER/WEAK TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN
OVER ERN AND SE TX..WHERE MAX LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR
BENEATH THE PROGRESSIVE UPR TROUGH. WHILE A SPIN-UP TYPE
FUNNEL/TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THIS REGION...ESPECIALLY NEAR
BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS OVER THE CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE TX GULF CSTL
PLN...WIND PROFILES APPEAR TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT MORE THAN VERY
ISOLD/BRIEF ACTIVITY DESPITE PRESENCE OF RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE.
..CORFIDI.. 10/21/2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT MON OCT 21 2013/
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD OVER
PARTS OF OK/TX/AR/LA...FL...AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION.
WEAK CAPE IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA...AND WEAK SHEAR IN FL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL SUPPRESS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND SHOULD
PRECLUDE SEVERE STORMS TODAY.
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