DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241942
SWODY1
SPC AC 241932

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
0232 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2013

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE PATTERN OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CONUS...WITH A DEEP ERN TROUGH AND BLOCKING/WEAK SPLIT FLOW ACROSS
THE WRN STATES. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SWD INTO THE FL
STRAITS...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST S-E OF THE KEYS AND SE FL COAST. SHALLOW LAKE EFFECT
CONVECTIVE BANDS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LAKE ERIE AND
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. SPORADIC/ISOLATED LIGHTNING FLASHES CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ...THE MAGNITUDE AND
DEPTH OF BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AT BEST FOR LIGHTNING
PRODUCTION...PRIOR TO THE LAKE BANDS WEAKENING AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO MORE NWLY TONIGHT.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CONUS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NE AZ AND WRN NM. ASCENT AND GRADUAL MOISTENING IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK
BUOYANCY AND AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR DEEP CONVECTION.

..15_OWS.. 10/24/2013

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