DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241312
SWODY1
SPC AC 241310

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0810 AM CDT THU OCT 24 2013

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE PATTERN OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CONUS...WITH A DEEP ERN TROUGH AND BLOCKING/WEAK SPLIT FLOW ACROSS
THE WRN STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SWD INTO THE FL
STRAITS...WITH ANY RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST S-E
OF THE KEYS AND SE FL COAST. SHALLOW LAKE EFFECT CONVECTIVE BANDS
WILL ALSO PERSIST TODAY IN THE LEE OF LAKES ERIE AND ESPECIALLY
ONTARIO. THOUGH SPORADIC/ISOLATED LIGHTNING FLASHES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED OVERNIGHT...THE MAGNITUDE AND DEPTH OF BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN
MARGINAL AT BEST FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION...PRIOR TO THE LAKE BANDS
WEAKENING AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO MORE NWLY TONIGHT.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CONUS WILL BEGIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NE AZ AND WRN NM. ASCENT AND GRADUAL MOISTENING IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK
BUOYANCY AND AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR DEEP CONVECTION.

..THOMPSON/GARNER.. 10/24/2013

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