DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191956
SWODY1
SPC AC 191954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT SAT OCT 19 2013

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES BEING MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...WITH THE MOST
SUBSTANTIAL BEING TO EXPAND THE GREAT LAKES THUNDER AREA WWD INTO
SERN MN/NERN IA...TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER VORT MAX CROSSING THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE
SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING SWWD INVOF THE SERN U.S. COAST AND ACROSS
NRN FL. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

..GOSS.. 10/19/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT SAT OCT 19 2013/

CYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT ACROSS MOST OF THE NATION TODAY...WITH THE
PRIMARY SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVER THE GULF...AND OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY
OVER PARTS OF FL. A STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH FL...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. OTHER ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER LAKE MI AND WESTERN LOWER MI WHERE WARM WATER TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

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