DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 052003
SWODY1
SPC AC 052000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER/MID
MS VALLEY...

...20Z UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PRIOR FORECAST REASONING ALTHOUGH SOME SPATIAL
ADJUSTMENTS MADE REGARDING THE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY. ISOLATED BOUTS OF DAMAGING WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD ACROSS THIS REGION INTO THIS EVENING. FOR
SUPPLEMENTAL SHORT-TERM INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1941
AND SUBSEQUENT SWOMCD ISSUANCES.

..GUYER.. 10/05/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013/

...UPPER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES...WITH THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN IA
INTO NORTHWEST AR. A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
2000 J/KG. A WEAK CAP WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN EARLY START OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AS INDICATED BY RECENT
RADAR/LIGHTNING DATA. OBSERVED VAD DATA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK TODAY...AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS. NEVERTHELESS...MULTIPLE WAVES OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...WITH A
FEW STORMS BECOMING SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED FOR A RISK OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

...LA COAST...
TS KAREN IS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF THE LA COAST. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL
SHEAR HAS NOT YET SIGNIFICANTLY STRENGTHENED TO THE NORTH OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. ALSO...VERY LITTLE CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED IN
THIS AREA. NEVERTHELESS THERE WILL REMAIN A LOW RISK OF A BRIEF
TORNADO OVER SOUTHEAST LA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT IF WIND
FIELDS INTENSIFY.

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