DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 062002
SWODY1
SPC AC 061959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OHIO
SWD TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

...20Z UPDATE...
LIMITED SPATIAL ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE PRIOR CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK...SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW AND RELATED MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS. MAIN SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO BE LINEAR BANDS OF
CONVECTION NEAR...AND MORE SO...JUST AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING
COLD FRONT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK...MOST PROBABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EAST-CENTRAL KY NNE INTO CENTRAL OH.

..GUYER.. 10/06/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013/

...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OHIO SWD TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG MID/UPPER PV MAX AND
ATTENDANT NEUTRALLY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING EWD TOWARD THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
MERIDIONALLY EXTENSIVE WARM CONVEYOR BELT PRECEDE THE PV MAX.
ACCOMPANYING SUPPRESSED INSOLATION WILL GENERALLY MITIGATE DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE MOIST AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF AN
ELONGATED...N/S-ORIENTED COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE AREAS OF
CLOUD-THINNING/CLEARING OVER THE ERN FRINGES OF THE BROADER CLOUD
SHIELD FROM MIDDLE TN NEWD TO THE ERN OHIO LAKESHORE. INSOLATION IN
THESE AREAS IS SERVING TO DIABATICALLY HEAT THE SURFACE LAYER
SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
AND...WITH A MODEST TROPOSPHERIC MOIST PLUME -- GPS PW AROUND
1.3-1.7 INCHES -- SUPPORTING BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
60S...MLCAPE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG WILL LIKELY ENSUE WHERE LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BECOME RELATIVELY STEEPER.

DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AMIDST DEEPENING PBL
CIRCULATIONS SHOULD FOSTER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM MIDDLE TN
NEWD TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
ADVANCE NEWD AND COULD ORGANIZE INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS WITH BOWING
ELEMENTS PROVIDED THE PRESENCE OF A 35-40 KT LLJ PRECEDING THE
CYCLONE AND STRONG DEEP SHEAR. DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WARRANTING SLIGHT-RISK DESIGNATION UPON COORDINATION WITH
THE AFFECTED WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES. THE FRONT SHOULD OVERTAKE
THIS CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...AND
COULD PROVIDE A TEMPORARY BOOST IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. NOCTURNAL
DESTABILIZATION WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT THE SVR THREAT BY MID/LATE
EVENING.

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