DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 150046
SWODY1
SPC AC 150044

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013

VALID 150100Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL PLAINS...
A MULTI-SEGMENTED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME STRONG CELLS IS
ONGOING FROM SE NEB SSWWD INTO SCNTRL KS. THE LINE IS LOCATED AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT ON THE WRN EDGE OF A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F. THIS IS RESULTING IN
WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING MLCAPE IN THE 200 TO
600 J/KG RANGE. IN SPITE OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY...WSR-88D VWPS IN
CNTRL KS AND SE NEB SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 55 TO 65 KT RANGE
SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.
THE MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE THREAT DIMINISHES
AFTER 03Z.

..BROYLES.. 10/15/2013

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