DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 301632
SWODY1
SPC AC 301630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLNS NEWD INTO THE
MID MS VLY/ARKLATEX...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LWR 48
THROUGH THU. POSITIVE-TILT UPR LOW/TROUGH NOW OVER THE RCKYS/ERN GRT
BASIN SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE ENEWD TNGT AND THU AS JET STREAK
NOW OVER THE GULF OF AK CONTINUES E INTO BC. THIS SET-UP SHOULD
DRIVE STRONG UPR VORT IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...NOW OVER NRN
AZ...EWD ACROSS NM TNGT AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/NW OK BY 12Z
THU...STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE
PLNS.

IN THE MEAN TIME...A BROAD SWATH OF INCREASINGLY MOIST...LOW-LVL
CONFLUENT FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE SRN PLNS NNE INTO THE MID-MS
VLY...ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT PRECEDING THE UPR TROUGH...AND E
OF DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLNS. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ATOP
THE MOIST CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN WEAK. BUT WITH AMPLE DEEP SHEAR IN
PLACE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SUSTAINED STORMS...POTENTIAL FOR
POCKETS/EPISODES OF STRONG TO SVR ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM A
LARGE PART OF TX E/NEWD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX INTO PARTS OF KS/MO AND
THE MID MS VLY.

...SRN PLNS NEWD INTO KS/MO/IA/IL...AND THE ARKLATEX...
AS IMPLIED ABOVE...SCTD SVR THREATS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDELY
DISTRIBUTED IN SPACE AND TIME THIS PERIOD...WITH MULTIPLE AREAS
POTENTIALLY SEEING ONE OR TWO ROUNDS OF ACTIVITY...AND WITH THE
OVERALL SVR RISK GRADUALLY INCREASING WITH TIME.

IN THE NEAR TERM...LOW-LVL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT NEAR DIFFUSE W-E
WARM FRONT IN NRN MO EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A RISK FOR ISOLD SVR
HAIL/WIND INTO THE AFTN /REF WW 549/. AS ASSOCIATED LEAD UPR IMPULSE
CONTINUES NNEWD ACROSS NEB/SD...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER
MO SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE. HOWEVER...WITH LLJ CONTINUING TO
STRENGTHEN AND VEER INTO THE AFTN...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT ISOLD SVR WEATHER /MAINLY IN THE FORM OF HAIL/...COULD SPREAD
ENE INTO THE MID MS VLY.

FARTHER SW...OTHER STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
INTENSITY LATER TODAY INTO TNGT FROM ERN KS SSW THROUGH WRN/CNTRL OK
INTO WRN AND NRN TX...ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/DRY LINE. WHILE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT APPRECIABLY CHANGE OVER THIS REGION
THROUGH LATE TODAY...MODEST SFC HEATING OF SEASONABLY MOIST
AIR...CONFLUENT LOW-LVL FLOW...AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
PROGRESSIVE UPR TROUGH ALL SUGGEST LIKELIHOOD FOR NUMEROUS
CLUSTERS/BANDS OF STORMS.

GIVEN STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD...AND LIKELY INCREASE IN THE FLOW
THROUGH THIS EVE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A COMPLEX MIX OF STORM
MODES CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL...SCTD DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE TORNADOES. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL REQUIRE THE PRESENCE OF
MESOSCALE FORCING MECHANISMS THAT ARE NOT APPARENT ATTM...BUT SOME
RISK WILL EXIST NONETHELESS. LATER TNGT AND...ESPECIALLY...EARLY
THU...STORMS SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY
STRENGTH AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE EWD ACCELERATION
OF AZ/NM UPR VORT.

STILL FARTHER S...AND SE...A SEPARATE SVR THREAT MAY ARISE OVER
CNTRL AND E TX...WHERE EXISTING WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOOSELY-ORGANIZED
CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE/BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. COMBINATION OF VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT /PW AOA
2 INCHES/ WITH SUBSTANTIALLY-INCREASED 850-700 MB FLOW LATE IN
PERIOD SUGGESTS AN INCREASING RISK FOR LEWP STRUCTURES AND AN
ATTENDANT WIND/TORNADO THREAT OVER PARTS OF E TX AND PERHAPS THE
ARKLATEX TOWARD DAYBREAK.

..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 10/30/2013

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