DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181624
SWODY1
SPC AC 181622

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT FRI OCT 18 2013

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TX...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT THIS MORNING OVER MOST OF THE
CONUS...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE
INTO CENTRAL OK...AND IS EXPECTED TO LIE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
TX BY EARLY EVENING. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL
LEAD TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE TX BIG
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO FORM. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...CAPE VALUES BELOW 1000
J/KG...AND LIMITED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SUGGEST THE RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS IS MARGINAL TODAY. NEVERTHELESS...RELATIVELY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE HAIL IN STRONGER
UPDRAFTS LATER TODAY.

..HART/LEITMAN.. 10/18/2013

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.