DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 281621
SWODY1
SPC AC 281619

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT MON OCT 28 2013

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN
HIGH PLNS AND CNTRL KS...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TUE...DOWNSTREAM FROM STRONG E PACIFIC/NW CANADA RIDGE. SATELLITE
LOOPS SUGGEST THAT SWD MOVEMENT OF CA-NV UPR LOW SHOULD CEASE LATER
TODAY...WITH THE SYSTEM EDGING E OR ENE INTO NE NV BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AND PERHAPS
SLIGHT BACKING OF MID/UPR-LVL WSWLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
CNTRL/SRN PLNS. AT THE SFC...THE WSW MID-LVL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LEE
TROUGH/LOW OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLNS...WHILE COLD FRONT MARKING
THE LEADING EDGE OF SEASONABLY COLD...SHALLOW...POLAR AIR MASS
ADVANCES FARTHER S/SW ACROSS ERN CO AND NRN KS.

STRENGTHENING WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ATOP THE AFOREMENTIONED POLAR
FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO EPISODES OF ELEVATED CONVECTION/TSTMS TNGT AND
EARLY TUE ACROSS MUCH OF KS AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NRN OK...WRN
MO...AND SRN NEB. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY TAP SUFFICIENT ELEVATED
CAPE TO YIELD SVR HAIL. IN THE MEAN TIME...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
ALSO WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR SFC-BASED STORMS
LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY THIS EVE S OF THE FRONT IN SW KS AND OVER
THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES...WHERE LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE WILL FOCUS
ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE.

...CNTRL PLNS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUE...
DEVELOPING DIURNAL CIRCULATIONS AND CONTINUED INFLOW OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE NNW ACROSS WRN/NW TX SHOULD ALLOW SFC DRY LINE/LEE
TROUGH TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY...WITH THE FEATURE LIKELY
EXTENDING FROM SFC LOW IN FAR SE CO/SW KS SWD THROUGH NW PORTIONS OF
THE TX PANHANDLE INTO W TX BY EARLY EVE.

BOTH LOW-LVL HEATING AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD FOCUS ALONG THE DRY LINE
LATER TODAY...WITH STRATUS CLOUDS LIMITING BREADTH OF LOW-LVL
DESTABILIZATION CORRIDOR TO ITS EAST. SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA
SUGGEST THAT LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS REGION WILL REMAIN
WEAK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME HINT THAT UPR IMPULSE NOW NEARING THE
AZ-NM BORDER WILL GLANCE SW KS TOWARD EVE.

AT ANY RATE...A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A SVR STORM OR TWO WILL EXIST
ALONG AND JUST E OF THE DRY LINE...ESPECIALLY FROM NRN PORTIONS OF
THE TX PANHANDLE NNE INTO SW KS LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY TNGT...WHERE
AMPLE /40-50 KT/ WSWLY DEEP SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS. WHILE
SOME QUESTION REMAIN REGARDING DEGREE OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
/ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WOULD BE
NECESSARY FOR LARGE HAIL...I.E...BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE
UPR 50S TO LOW 60S...ATTM REMAINS CONFINED TO VICINITY OF
DISSIPATING FRONT NOW E-SE OF LBB-CDS/...THE RISK FOR SUSTAINED
STORMS DOES APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MODEST EXTENSION OF THE
EXISTING SLIGHT RISK AREA SSW INTO THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES...MAINLY
FOR SVR HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

OTHERWISE...NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SSWLY LLJ...INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE CONTINUED ENE ADVANCE OF AZ-NM
UPR IMPULSE...AND PERSISTENT MOISTURE RETURN TOGETHER SUGGEST GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL ALONG
AND N OF STALLING POLAR FRONT IN KS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
AFFECT ADJACENT PARTS OF WRN MO...NRN OK...AND POSSIBLY SE NEB BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 10/28/2013

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