DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131242
SWODY1
SPC AC 131240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

VALID 131300Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WEST THIS
PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFIED E PACIFIC RIDGE AND N/W OF
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. WITHIN THE
TROUGH...STRONG SIERRA VORT WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS THE SRN GRT BASIN
TODAY BEFORE TURNING E TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY MON.

APPROACH OF THE GRT BASIN VORT WILL INDUCE LEE TROUGHING OVER THE
SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLNS...WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW EMERGING OVER NE
CO DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. STRENGTHENING LOW-LVL SELY
FLOW E OF THE LEE TROUGH WILL ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO SPREAD NW
ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLNS...INCREASING CHANCES FOR A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR STORMS OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH
EARLY MON.

...SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLNS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY MON...
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLNS
THROUGH MON AS GRT BASIN TROUGH CONTINUES EWD AND ASSOCIATED JET
STREAK MERGES WITH BELT OF ENHANCED FLOW ON NW SIDE OF GULF RIDGE.
AT THE SAME TIME...DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE AT THE SFC WILL STRENGTHEN
EXISTING SELY LOW-LVL FLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO REGION.

LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN ABOUT NEUTRAL OVER ERN NM/SE CO
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH WEAK FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BY EARLY TNGT. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW-LVL WAA AND UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN. COUPLED WITH MINIMAL INHIBITION...SETUP SHOULD
FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD TO SCTD TSTMS ON WRN EDGE OF MOIST
AXIS...WHERE SFC HEATING SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED AND MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE STEEP. CLOUDS WILL...HOWEVER...LIMIT MAGNITUDE AND AREAL
EXTENT OF BUOYANCY...WITH SBCAPE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 750 J/KG. IN
SUMMARY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG TO SVR
WIND GUSTS AND/OR SVR HAIL...BUT OVERALL RISK DOES NOT APPEAR GREAT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT UPGRADE TO CATEGORICAL SLGT ATTM.

AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER CNTRL HIGH PLNS...AND AS MORE
SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS FROM THE W...EXPECT MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF ELEVATED TSTMS OVER ERN CO/WRN KS/WRN NEB
LATER TNGT THROUGH EARLY MON. WHILE A RISK FOR SVR HAIL WILL EXIST
WITH ANY STRONGER/MORE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...DEGREE OF ELEVATED
BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT MORE THAN AN ISOLD RISK
FOR SVR WEATHER.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 10/13/2013

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.