DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 100538
SWODY2
SPC AC 100536

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NERN SD...ERN ND...NWRN
MN...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH ATTENDANT
STACKED SURFACE LOW. STRONG FORCING AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS.

TO THE S...A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
PLAINS...WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A STALLED BOUNDARY...FROM IA
SWWD INTO WRN OK...WITH A LOW LEVEL JET RESULTING IN MORE
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT INTO SRN AND ERN OK.

...NERN SD...ERN ND...NWRN MN...
AN AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR SHOULD RAPIDLY
MOVE NWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN THROUGH ABOUT 18Z.
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK AND LIKELY ELEVATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...LAPSE RATES WILL
STEEPEN FURTHER DUE TO COOLING ALOFT AND WIND PROFILES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH MUCAPE WILL GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN 500 J/KG...THE HIGH RH ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE
FORCING AND WIND PROFILES MAY RESULT IN A FEW WEAK TORNADOES. COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO FAVOR HAIL.

...NERN OK...ERN KS...NWRN MO...SWRN IA...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A STALLED FRONT
LATE IN THE DAY FROM NERN OK INTO MO/IA. FORCING WILL BE WEAK...AND
MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST
MOST OF THE STORMS WILL FORM AFTER SUNSET WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES. POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A MARGINAL HAIL
THREAT...BUT GIVEN A SUPERCELL WIND PROFILE...A FEW CELLS COULD BE
SEVERE.

..JEWELL.. 10/10/2013

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