DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 221719
SWODY2
SPC AC 221717

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT TUE OCT 22 2013

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKING LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO
REMAIN PROMINENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN U.S. ON
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS SUGGEST THAT DOWNSTREAM UPPER
TROUGHING WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S...WHILE BROADENING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND
ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC. ONE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PROBABLY
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CYCLOGENESIS...EAST NORTHEAST OF MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS...ALONG A SURFACE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA BY 12Z THURSDAY. A RESIDUAL MOIST AND POTENTIALLY
UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA MAY SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THIS PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE NATION...WITH NEGLIGIBLE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

...SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
PROBABILITIES/COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE LIMITED BY
THE LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIVE MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...PARTICULARLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRENGTH OF FRONTAL/PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALSO REMAINS UNCLEAR. EVEN WITH MOISTURE INCREASING TO
SEASONABLY HIGH LEVELS...WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED
TO MINIMIZE CAPE...AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS.
WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR ALSO REMAINING WEAK...THE
RISK FOR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND OR HAIL STILL
APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE.

..KERR.. 10/22/2013

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