DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 231704
SWODY2
SPC AC 231702

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT WED OCT 23 2013

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA
WILL REMAIN SPLIT AROUND A BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE. WITHIN THE WEAKER
SOUTHERN STREAM...MODELS INDICATE THAT ONE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL
GRADUALLY PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU REGION DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. EVEN WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COOLING
AND STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION FOR SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY WITH THE AID OF OROGRAPHIC FORCING ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT.

TO THE EAST...MID/UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CONVERGE INTO
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LINGERING RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG A SLOW MOVING/STALLING FRONTAL ZONE NEAR
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...THIS REGIME IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW TO NEGLIGIBLE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

..KERR.. 10/23/2013

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