DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 090509
SWODY2
SPC AC 090508

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 AM CDT WED OCT 09 2013

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN CO AND WRN KS INTO WRN
NEB AND SRN SD...

...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
STATES AND INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY THU AFTERNOON...CONTINUING
INTO SD BY FRI MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN
ACROSS NERN CO/SWRN NEB DURING THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM WRN NEB INTO THE WRN
OK/TX PANHANDLES.

STRONG SELY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL BRING MAINLY
LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS NWWD AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT AS FAR N
AS SD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FOR
SEVERE STORMS GIVEN VERY STRONG WIND PROFILES AND FORCING.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
RAPID COOLING ALOFT WILL OCCUR ACROSS CO AS THE TROUGH MOVES NEWD.
THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLY TIMED WITH PEAK HEATING...AND STRONG
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN RAPID HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN CO. SELY SURFACE WINDS WILL
ALLOW DEWPOINTS NEAR 50 F TO REACH THE CO BORDER...WITH LITTLE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH EVENING. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FROM NERN CO INTO WRN
NEB AND NWRN KS WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL EMERGE ATOP THE LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME. DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY. SUPERCELL WIND
PROFILES MAY ALLOW LARGE HAIL IN SOME OF THE CORES...AND WITH STRONG
MERIDIONAL FLOW...SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MAKE IT INTO
SRN SD DURING THE EVENING.

THE ERN EXTENT OF THE RISK AREA WILL END ABRUPTLY AS STORMS LEAVE
THE WARMER AIR AND ENCOUNTER A COOL/CAPPED AIR MASS.

..JEWELL.. 10/09/2013

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