DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 100659
SWODY3
SPC AC 100658

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 AM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BEHIND
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOWER MI INTO SRN OK SAT AFTERNOON. S OF
THIS FRONT...LOW TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST...BENEATH
RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT WITH WLY FLOW. THE SRN PLAINS PORTION OF
THIS FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY LATE ACROSS THE WRN
CONUS...WITH WEAK CONVECTION POSSIBLE.

...NWRN TX INTO SERN OK AND NWRN AR...
MODELS SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS SRN OK/N TX
INTO WRN TX DURING DAY...THEN RETURNING NWWD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS
WRN TX OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING OVER ERN
OK INTO WRN AR EARLY SAT...AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LATER IN THE DAY...STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER WRN AND NWRN
TX...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE BOUNDARY. MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. A CLUSTER
OF STORMS COULD BE MAINTAINED INTO THE EVENING OVER WRN TX AS A SELY
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AS THE WRN TROUGH AMPLIFIES.

..JEWELL.. 10/10/2013

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