DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 130732
SWODY3
SPC AC 130730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION EARLY
TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE AN UPSTREAM VORT MAX DROPS SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN AREA. SFC LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT
ADVANCES EWD AND SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...MIDWEST...MID-LOWER
MS VALLEY AND TX.

...CNTRL THROUGH SWRN TX AREA...

INDICATIONS ARE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ALONG
WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM NRN TX THROUGH THE
MID-UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS
NEAR 70 WILL RESIDE IN TX WARM SECTOR BENEATH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. HOWEVER...CLOUD BREAKS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST MODEST
DIABATIC WARMING OF THE SFC LAYER...LIKELY BOOSTING MLCAPE TO 1500
J/KG. STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL REMAIN FAR REMOVED FROM THE
TX WARM SECTOR WITH RELATIVELY WEAK-MODEST SWLY FLOW FROM THE SFC
THROUGH 500 MB AND VERTICAL SHEAR AOB 30 KT. A FEW STORMS MAY
REDEVELOP ALONG THE SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM
CNTRL THROUGH SWRN TX AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. MULTICELL
STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT MORE THAN
5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

...MIDWEST THROUGH GREAT LAKES...

PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 WILL ADVECT NEWD THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARMS SECTOR.
HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND ONGOING
CONVECTION ALONG THE CONVEYOR BELT WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION WITHIN AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS.

..DIAL.. 10/13/2013

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