DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 130905
SWOD48
SPC AC 130904

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0404 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN A POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY /DAY 4/ BEFORE
EJECTING THROUGH NERN STATES THURSDAY /DAY 5/. AN UPSTREAM VORT MAX
WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY ON THE HEELS OF THIS FEATURE. IN ASSOCIATION
WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AND NERN U.S. DAYS 4-5 WITH TRAILING PORTIONS MOVING THROUGH
THE SERN STATES...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
LIMITED WITH NEWD EXTENT INTO THE OH VALLEY AND NERN STATES...AND
GIVEN POSITIVE TILT NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN POST FRONTAL. THESE LIMITING FACTORS SHOULD
PRECLUDE A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN DAYS 4-5.

DAYS 6-8 A SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES. WHILE SOME SEVERE THREAT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ACROSS CNTRL/SRN TX INTO THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL REGION DAY 6 AS
GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN THROUGH WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL TO INTRODUCE A HIGHER
PROBABILITY RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.

..DIAL.. 10/13/2013

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