DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 220858
SWOD48
SPC AC 220857

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT TUE OCT 22 2013

VALID 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIAN MTNS AND MOVE THIS FEATURE
EWD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON FRIDAY/DAY 4. ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT THE LAKES
REGION ON SATURDAY/DAY 5. MOISTURE RETURN COULD OCCUR INTO SRN
PLAINS SATURDAY CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY/DAY 6. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOIST AXIS ON MONDAY/DAY 7
FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SSWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. AT THIS
POINT...FORECAST INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK ON SUNDAY BUT STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR DUE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE EXIT
REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE SCNTRL STATES. ALTHOUGH
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CNTRL U.S. SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MODEL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS SUBSTANTIAL THIS
FAR OUT IN TIME.

..BROYLES.. 10/22/2013

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