DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 290854
SWOD48
SPC AC 290853

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013

VALID 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
00Z-BASED DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE GENERALLY COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT FROM PRIOR DAYS...WITH THE EXPECTED PERSISTENCE OF
A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
DAY 4-8 PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH THE QUICK NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF AN UPPER TROUGH/POLAR JET OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND
AND ADJACENT CANADA...WITH A COLD FRONT ADVANCING FROM THE
APPALACHIANS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON DAY 4/FRIDAY. A SEASONALLY
MOIST AIRMASS WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THAT STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL COINCIDE WITH THIS MOISTURE...AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES
DAY 4/FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH A 30 PERCENT CALIBER SEVERE RISK IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. OF NOTE...SOME CONVECTIVELY-AIDED STRONG WIND
GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS FAR NORTHEAST AS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY...PROVIDED WEAK NEAR-SURFACE DESTABILIZATION.

IN THE WAKE OF THE EASTERN STATES COLD FRONT...THE PREVALENCE OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS HIGH PRESSURE AND COOL/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A VIRTUALLY NIL SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND.
THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS/POSSIBLY SOME STRONG COULD INCREASE EARLY
NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AS A WESTERN STATES
UPPER TROUGH POTENTIALLY APPROACHES AROUND DAYS 7-8 MONDAY/TUESDAY.

..GUYER.. 10/29/2013

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