DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 070857
SWOD48
SPC AC 070857

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT MON OCT 07 2013

VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE ON THU/D4...THEN
INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON FRI/D5. THE OVERWHELMING MITIGATING FACTOR TO
A MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT WILL BE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
MAGNITUDE. WITH SUCH A DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS UPSTREAM...DEWPOINTS
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID 50S BY THU EVENING AND IN A
RELATIVELY NARROW PLUME. CONDITIONALLY...WIND PROFILES WILL BE VERY
STRONG AND FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OR SEVERE LEWPS.

DUE TO THE NARROW ZONE OF INSTABILITY...AND CAPPING POTENTIAL
FARTHER E INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND WHERE COOLER AIR WILL
EXIST...THE THREAT AREA WILL BE LIMITED TO WRN PORTIONS OF NEB AND
KS...AND PERHAPS EXTREME ERN CO GIVEN THE MERIDIONAL NATURE OF THE
UPPER FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL WINDS BACKED.

INTO FRI/D5...THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE NEWD WITH STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT MOVING INTO MN AND IA. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IN THESE AREAS
IS FORECAST TO BE MINUSCULE...AND THIS WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.
GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FARTHER SWWD ALONG THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO KS AND OK...BUT THE WEAK SURFACE PATTERN
AND STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT SUGGEST ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE
POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

FOR D6...THE MODELS DEPICT A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
KS/OK...BUT DIFFERENCES ABOUND. THE ECMWF WOULD INDICATE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS N TX...OK...AND ERN KS...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS
TOO LOW FOR ANY D6 AREA.

..JEWELL.. 10/07/2013

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