ACUS11 KWNS 052018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052018
INZ000-052215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1942
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF INDIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 052018Z - 052215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE SVR THREAT COULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AND TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WW ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...APPROACHING CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED INTO QUASI-LINEAR
BANDS FROM NERN IL AND NWRN INDIANA SSWWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY.
WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND 35-45 KT SAMPLED BY THE INDIANAPOLIS VWP
WILL STEER THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ACROSS CNTRL INDIANA...WHILE CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR
FOR THE CONTINUATION OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DESPITE RELATIVELY
MOIST CONDITIONS IN THE PBL -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70F -- WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE STUNTING SFC
DIABATIC HEATING AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION AND PREVENTING STRONGER
BUOYANCY FROM ENSUING. REGARDLESS...LINE-EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES
WITH MORE INTENSE CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE DMGG WIND GUSTS ACROSS
THE AREA...AS THIS ACTIVITY CROSSES THE AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.
..COHEN/HART.. 10/05/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...
LAT...LON 39148637 39448691 40498670 40948615 41038512 39968487
39278548 39148637
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment