MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1953

ACUS11 KWNS 071612
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071612
NCZ000-VAZ000-071845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1953
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT MON OCT 07 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN VA AND ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 071612Z - 071845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AND THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE EXTENDS S OF TORNADO WATCH
543 INTO THE VA AND NC PIEDMONT...AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EWD INTO A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 700-1500 J/KG
OF MLCAPE. SINCE THIS ACTIVITY LIES E OF THE STRONGER/DEEPER
SYNOPTIC FRONT...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ITS LONGER-TERM
EVOLUTION. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ASCENT COULD BOLSTER THIS
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IF IT CAN OVERTAKE THE SQUALL LINE IN A FEW
HOURS...AND IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ORGANIZES
IN ADVANCE OF THE SQUALL LINE. WAKEFIELD VWP SAMPLES 35-40 KT OF
SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP 30-35-KT OF SLY 0.5-2-KM-AGL FLOW...WHICH
COULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS.
THIS POTENTIAL COULD BE ENHANCED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE VIS
IMAGERY SUGGESTS GREATER COVERAGE OF FILTERED SUNSHINE. THIS AREA
FEATURES DIURNALLY DEEPENING CLOUD STREETS ORIENTED ALONG THE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VECTOR...INDICATIVE OF A GROWING PBL WITH STEEPER
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
A DETERRENT IN SUPPORTING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR POTENTIAL.

..COHEN/HART.. 10/07/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

LAT...LON 35837845 37907745 37767620 35837585 35377648 35237761
35837845

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