MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1957

ACUS11 KWNS 072029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072029
MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-072200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1957
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 PM CDT MON OCT 07 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CT...MA...MAINE...NH...LONG ISLAND OF
NY...VT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 544...

VALID 072029Z - 072200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 544
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS CONTINUES ACROSS WW 544.

DISCUSSION...A STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTIVE BAND WILL CONTINUE
ADVANCING EWD AROUND 30-35 KT ACROSS WW 544. AS AN UPSTREAM
MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO ASSUME A NEGATIVE TILT WHILE PHASING
WITH AN AMPLIFYING GREAT-LAKES-AREA TROUGH...CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE
A TENDENCY TO ACCELERATE/INTENSIFY NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND IN THE
SHORT TERM. REGARDLESS...SBCAPE WILL GENERALLY BE AOB 500
J/KG...HIGHEST OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE EARLIER SFC DIABATIC
HEATING HAS SUPPORTED A DEEPER PBL AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE
60S. WITH REGIONAL VWP DATA SAMPLING AROUND 50 KT OF SLY FLOW AT 1
KM AGL...CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT DMGG WIND GUSTS
WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH LEWP-RELATED MESOVORTICES.

..COHEN.. 10/07/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON 40727239 40757412 45787143 45786957 40727239

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