MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1975

ACUS11 KWNS 262007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262006
TXZ000-OKZ000-262130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1975
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 262006Z - 262130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT STILL REMAINS
UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS THREAT WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT TO REQUIRE A
SEVERE WEATHER WATCH...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY.

DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IS WEAK/UNCLEAR...BUT A SMALL AREA OF INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT NEAR THE RED RIVER EAST OF WICHITA
FALLS. THIS APPEARS TO BE AIDED BY STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK AND
ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER DIGGING EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION...PERHAPS FOCUSED WITHIN A ZONE OF ENHANCED
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION.

IN THE PRESENCE OF 30 KT DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW...THE MOST
VIGOROUS STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A
PRECIPITATION INDUCED/ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH 21-23Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...WHERE MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS
ONGOING.

ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR HAVE BEEN WEAKENING...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO GIVEN AT LEAST MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE
RISK FOR MAINLY SEVERE HAIL...PERHAPS LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS.

..KERR/THOMPSON.. 10/26/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 32769970 33449902 34129789 34199682 33559570 32059733
31999920 32769970

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