MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1980

ACUS11 KWNS 301145
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301145
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-301345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1980
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/KS...NRN MO...SWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 301145Z - 301345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY AN INCREASING COVERAGE
OF ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG THE
NOSE OF A SWLY 850 MB LLJ...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE
LOWER/MID-MO VALLEY WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING IN CNTRL KS.
THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN ELEVATED WITH THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT FROM FAR NW OK TO ICT TOWARDS A WEAK
CYCLONE INVOF STJ. WITHIN AN EML PLUME AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT SAMPLED BY A 06Z LAMONT OK RAOB...WEAK TO MODERATE
BUOYANCY EXISTS FOR SEVERE HAIL IN SEMI-ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. WITH
THE MO VALLEY CONVECTION GENERALLY DEVELOPING AWAY FROM THE PLUME OF
RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE
HAIL MAY EMANATE OUT OF THE CNTRL KS CONVECTION. BUT AN OVERALL
CLUSTERED STORM MODE SHOULD LIMIT HAIL SIZE TO BELOW SIGNIFICANT
THRESHOLDS.

..GRAMS/EDWARDS.. 10/30/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON 41879675 41539481 40659307 40009245 39549228 39039263
39009336 39149461 38459607 38169696 38169784 38359814
39629748 40529732 41259756 41579755 41879675

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