MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1981

ACUS11 KWNS 301429
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301429
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-301600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1981
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0929 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SE NEB...SRN IA...NCNTRL MO...NE KS...WRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 301429Z - 301600Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER MO VALLEY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER CELLS
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER SW IA WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS SRN IA INTO WRN IL WITH A COLD FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS FAR NW MO INTO NE KS. THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING
ALONG THE COLD FRONT VERY NEAR THE AXIS OF A 35 TO 45 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH 50 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW IS CREATING
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THE ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED. THIS
FACTOR COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MAKE THE MAIN
THREAT LARGE HAIL THIS MORNING. AS SFC TEMPS WARM SOME EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THE STORMS ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE CLUSTER MAY BECOME
SFC-BASED SOMEWHAT ALLOWING THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT TO INCREASE. FOR
THIS REASON...THE STORMS IN NE KS AND SE NEB ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
EWD ACROSS SRN IA AND NRN MO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SEVERE
THREAT CONTINUING.

FURTHER TO THE EAST...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ONGOING
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY IS WEAKER EWD NEAR THE MS RIVER...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE MARKEDLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A
CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT THERE.

..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 10/30/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON 38859269 38699130 39229071 39979062 40599154 41379307
41659511 41479571 40919630 39689645 39079590 39019522
38859269

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