MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1989

ACUS11 KWNS 311156
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311156
LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-311400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1989
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...LA...SWRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 311156Z - 311400Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD INTO LATE MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
PRE-FRONTAL QLCS. AWAITING 12Z RAOBS AND CLOSELY MONITORING
SUFFICIENT INTENSIFICATION OF THE QLCS FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE RADAR REFLECTIVITY GRADIENT
HAS BEEN EVIDENT WITH A QLCS EXTENDING FROM N-CNTRL LA TOWARDS
GALVESTON BAY. THE LONE REPORT OF WIND DAMAGE THIS MORNING OCCURRED
IN THE PAST HOUR IN JASPER COUNTY TX AND MAY BE THE SIGNAL FOR AT
LEAST A LOCALIZED SEVERE RISK FINALLY BEING REALIZED. THIS QLCS IS
CURRENTLY INTERCEPTING THE PLUME OF RICHER GULF DEW
POINTS...CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE 70S AT THE MOUTH OF THE SABINE
RIVER. ALTHOUGH THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS TOWARDS THE MS VALLEY IS
LIKELY NOT QUITE AS BUOYANT AND TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES ARE
POOR...INTENSE LOW/MID-LEVEL SHEAR MAY COMPENSATE AND YIELD
LEWP/BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND A
BRIEF TORNADO.

..GRAMS/EDWARDS.. 10/31/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 32159214 32399131 32359013 31868975 31388981 30109043
29289127 29699418 30399383 31399274 32159214

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