MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

AWUS01 KWNH 131310
FFGMPD
TXZ000-131500-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0275
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
909 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 131308Z - 131500Z

SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHICH MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD
CONCERNS.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOP COOLING IN
A BROAD SENSE HAS PEAKED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS..THOUGH NEW AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OUTSIDE
THE MAIN CLUSTER OF STORMS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS EASTERN
PORTION OF MCS CONTINUING TO DROP SLOWLY SWD IN RESPONSE TO LARGE
RAIN COOLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY..WHILE WESTERN PORTION OF BOUNDARY
HAS BECOME A BIT MORE STATIONARY OR EVEN RETREATED A BIT NORTHWARD
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. LATEST MESO ANAYLYIS SHOWS DECENT AREA
OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG CAPE SOUTH OF THE CONVECTION WITH SOME VERY
HIGH SFC DEWPOINT AIR CONTINUING TO FEED NWWD INTO THE CONVECTION
FRMO THE TX COAST REGION. IN ADDITION...HIGH MSTR FROM
SUBTROPICAL JET FEEDING ACRS MEX AND TAPPING HIGH LEVEL MSTR FROM
T.S. OCTAVE IS HELPING TO SUPPORT VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES UP
TO 1 TO 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR.

LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS EASTERN PORTION OF ONGOING MCS REMAINING
ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE MID/UPR TX COAST TOWARD LATE MORNING...WHILE ACTIVITY
BECOMES MORE SCATTERED WITH WIDER COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN TEXAS BY LATER THIS MORNING. FFG VALUES ARE LOCALLY
RATHER HIGH...BUT WITH OBSERVED RAINFALL RATES ALREADY UP TO 2.5
INCHES/HR...AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT...THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL
CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING...AT LEAST LOCALLY.

SULLIVAN

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON 30609655 30099515 29349514 28439635 28599735 28899811
29099967 29110057 30940029 30849920 30709806 30609655

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