DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021219
SWODY1
SPC AC 021217

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0717 AM CDT SAT NOV 02 2013

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY THROUGH THE ERN CONUS
TODAY...WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST. BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES...A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...WITH THE
TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. OVER THE WEST...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AS AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WA/OR.

THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH VERY ISOLATED ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE VERY LOW ACROSS THE CONUS.

...CENTRAL/SRN FL...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED /MAINLY PRIOR TO 00Z/ ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA. WHILE THE
PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST...VERY WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE STORMS.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
POST-FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS WRN WA/ORE AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS COLD TEMPS ALOFT /-25C TO -30C AT 500 MB/ OVERSPREAD
THE REGION.

...OHIO VALLEY...
COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE
WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITH SHALLOW CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

..DEAN/MEAD.. 11/02/2013

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