DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021604
SWODY1
SPC AC 021602

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1102 AM CDT SAT NOV 02 2013

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH...WITH EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA...WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EWD FROM THE OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING...AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD FROM CENTRAL FL TO
THE FL STRAITS. 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEALED POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
ACROSS FL...WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT BUOYANCY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL FL TODAY...BUT THE RISK SHOULD SLOWLY
DIMINISH WITH TIME AND SWD EXTENT. OTHERWISE...SOME LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MIDLEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
CROSSES KY AND VICINITY. LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM FROM THE SURFACE
TO 500 MB AND COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN MUCAPE OF
100-200 J/KG AND EL TEMPERATURES AOB -20 C...BOTH OF WHICH ARE
SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION.

ACROSS THE PAC NW...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INLAND THIS
MORNING. THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES AND WEAK SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY
ARE EXPECTED TO LIKEWISE SPREAD INLAND TODAY IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE RISK FOR ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE ONLY OTHER POTENTIAL CONCERN FOR DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS
SRN AZ NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...AS A WEAK SRN STREAM LOW EVOLVES
INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AND EJECTS ENEWD OVER NW MEXICO IN ADVANCE
OF THE PAC NW TROUGH. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT
MIDLEVEL MOISTENING OVER AZ WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WEAK
ELEVATED CAPE...SO WILL NOT ADD A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA IN THIS
UPDATE.

..THOMPSON/PETERS.. 11/02/2013

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