DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 200600
SWODY1
SPC AC 200558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2013

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN AND CNTRL OK...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS. IN RESPONSE...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS AS A JET MAX NEAR 850 MB STRENGTHENS FROM WCNTRL TX
INTO CNTRL OK. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE
NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK THIS
EVENING SPREADING NEWD DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN WRN OK AT 06Z SHOW A SHARP SFC INVERSION WITH
MUCAPE AROUND 1200 J/KG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 50 KT
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT
MAINLY AFTER 03Z.

..BROYLES/SMITH.. 11/20/2013

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