DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 040521
SWODY1
SPC AC 040519

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 PM CST SUN NOV 03 2013

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE GREAT BASIN
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH INCREASINGLY
SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE PLAINS STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
OVER MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS...WITH A SLOW RETURN OF MODEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASING LIFT AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM FOUR CORNERS STATES INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

...NM DURING THE DAY...THEN WRN KS INTO SRN NEB OVERNIGHT...
STRONG HEATING...COOLING ALOFT AND AREAS OF UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD
TO WEAK DAYTIME STORMS OVER NM...WHERE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AND PERHAPS GRAUPEL IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OVERNIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NRN NM INTO THE CNTRL/SRN
HIGH PLAINS. A STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP...RESULTING IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SCATTERED STORMS. THOUGH SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS...INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK.

..JEWELL/MOSIER.. 11/04/2013

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