DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111223
SWODY1
SPC AC 111220

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0620 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO CONSIDERABLE AMPLIFICATION
TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WHILE AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE NERN PACIFIC OCEAN TOWARDS THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WHICH WILL AID IN KEEPING THE OVERALL PATTERN
PROGRESSIVE. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE
SWD/SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. BY 12Z/TUE...THE COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO LIE FROM THE SRN TX PANHANDLE/SW TX EWD THROUGH THE
ARKLATEX THEN NEWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS AND ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE HIGH /CENTRAL
PRESSURE APPROACHING 1050 MB BY 12Z TUE/ WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER/MID MS VALLEY BEHIND THE FRONT.

...SRN PLAINS...
RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A NARROW ZONE OF DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TX NNEWD THROUGH WRN OK.
ONLY MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN IS ANTICIPATED AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. SEWD
ADVECTION OF A MODEST EML /700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 TO 7.5 C
PER KM/ WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PRIMARY MODEL GUIDANCE /NAM...GFS...ECMWF/ IS
FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NRN OK AROUND
00Z. HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE IS NOTORIOUSLY SLOW WITH SHALLOW ARCTIC
FRONTS. RECENT RAP RUNS FAVOR A FASTER SWD PROGRESSION WITH THE
LATEST RUN BRINGING THE FRONT INTO NRN OK AROUND 20-21Z. REGARDLESS
OF THE FRONTAL TIMING...MOST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS...SHOWS A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND NO
THUNDER POTENTIAL. AS A RESULT..THE THUNDER AREA ACROSS WRN OK HAS
BEEN REMOVED.

..MOSIER/EDWARDS.. 11/11/2013

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