DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111949
SWODY1
SPC AC 111947

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013

VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

..DARROW.. 11/11/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013/

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES A DEEP VORTEX OVER THE SRN TIP OF
JAMES BAY WITH AN ATTENDANT TROUGH TRAILING TO THE WSW INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE THE PARENT VORTEX CROSSES QUEBEC...AND
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SPRAWLS SWD/SEWD ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE
CNTRL/ERN CONUS. LATE TONIGHT...THE SHARP COLD FRONT PRECEDING THIS
AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE EXTENDING
SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.

THE RETURN OF WEAKLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SCANT
ELEVATED BUOYANCY WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM NW TX ACROSS
OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. FRONTAL ASCENT MAY FOSTER A FEW
UPDRAFTS IN THIS REGION...AND AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY UNDERCUT ANY INCIPIENT
UPDRAFTS TO CURTAIL THE THUNDER POTENTIAL...AND DRY CONDITIONS IN
THE MID LEVELS SHOULD PROVE TO BE DELETERIOUS FOR THE SUSTENANCE OF
DEEPER CONVECTION.

ADDITIONALLY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL DEVELOP FROM NNW TO SSE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS COLD MID-LEVEL CONDITIONS
OVERSPREAD THESE AREAS. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST...MOST PERSISTENT BANDS.
HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL DRYING ACCOMPANYING THE QUICK PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO LIMITING THE DEPTH OF BUOYANCY
LAYERS...MITIGATING THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

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