DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 120048
SWODY1
SPC AC 120046

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013

VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AMPLIFICATION OF THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN UNDERWAY WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST
BUILDING NWD INTO WRN CANADA...WHILE A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...AN EXPANSIVE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SWD/SEWD THROUGH THE
PLAINS STATES...OH/TN VALLEYS AND GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE ERN TROUGH AND MARKING THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE MOVING OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z TUESDAY...AND THEN EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION TO THE MID SOUTH AND CENTRAL TX EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

...SRN OK/NWRN TX...
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPE OF A FEW
HUNDRED J PER KG/ JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN OK INTO
NWRN TX. A CAP ROOTED AROUND 700 MB PER 00Z OUN SOUNDING AND DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE MIDLEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A HINDRANCE TO ANY
UPDRAFTS THAT CAN DEVELOP WITHIN UPLIFT ALONG THE SWD MOVING FRONT.
FURTHERMORE...ANY UPDRAFTS SHOULD BECOME UNDERCUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BY
THE BOUNDARY...LIMITING THEIR SUSTENANCE POTENTIAL. THUS...THE
THREAT FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT.

..PETERS.. 11/12/2013

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