DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041958
SWODY1
SPC AC 041956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CST MON NOV 04 2013

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...DISCUSSION...
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER STILL
ANTICIPATED. MINOR CHANGE TO TRIM THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA A
BIT OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

..GRAMS.. 11/04/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0945 AM CST MON NOV 04 2013/

...SYNOPSIS...
A MODIFYING CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS IS RETURNING NWWD ACROSS THE
SRN GULF TO THE SRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...12Z SOUNDINGS REVEALED POOR LAPSE
RATES AND LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR BUOYANCY WITHIN THE RETURNING
MOISTURE PLUME...AND SURFACE HEATING WILL BE LIMITED BY MID-HIGH
CLOUDS. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL DEVELOP FARTHER W THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS ERN AZ/NM...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SRN CA. ASCENT AND GRADUAL LOW-MIDLEVEL
MOISTENING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK BUOYANCY ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES...WITH AN
ATTENDANT RISK FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT...THE RISK FOR A
FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NEWD TO WRN KS...IN A
STRENGTHENING WAA REGIME ON THE NW EDGE OF THE RETURNING MOISTURE
PLUME FROM THE SRN PLAINS.

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.