Monday, November 4, 2013

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041249
SWODY1
SPC AC 041247

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 AM CST MON NOV 04 2013

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

BROAD TROUGHING FROM THE WRN STATES TO MS VALLEY WILL CONSOLIDATE
INTO A SHORTER WAVELENGTH BUT HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH WHICH WILL
EXTEND FROM CNTRL CANADA TO THE SWRN DESERTS BY 05/12Z. WITHIN THIS
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NEB
WILL EJECT NEWD INTO ONTARIO AROUND AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY ADVANCING
EWD THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. UPSTREAM FROM THESE
DEVELOPMENTS...THE EQUATORWARD MOVEMENT OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAKS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE AMPLIFICATION
AND EWD PROGRESSION OF THE SRN PORTION OF THE FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH
THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DAKOTAS/NEB
IMPULSE STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO SRN HIGH PLAINS AS OF
12Z. THE NRN EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE THE SRN PORTION SAGS MORE SLOWLY SWD OVER
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY BEFORE RETREATING NWD TONIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES.

...SRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

WHILE THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY /I.E. PW
VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.5 TO 0.6 INCH/...STEEPENING LOW TO
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY LATER
TODAY. WHEN COUPLED WITH INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND
LOW-LEVEL UPLIFT ALONG THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT AND FAVORED
TERRAIN...ISOLATED TSTMS APPEAR POSSIBLE FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
INTO LATE EVENING.

...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...

MORNING SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS 12Z SOUNDINGS AND
SATELLITE-DERIVED PW IMAGERY INDICATE THE POLEWARD RETURN OF A
MODIFIED CP AIR MASS THROUGH THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH TX.
THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD AS SLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO THE EVOLVING WRN U.S.
TROUGH.

BY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THIS MOISTURE RETURN/DESTABILIZATION
WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE AXIS OF
THE DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM TO FOSTER ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS FROM ERN NM/WRN TX INTO CNTRL KS.
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK AND NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

..MEAD/BOTHWELL.. 11/04/2013

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