DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 031729
SWODY2
SPC AC 031727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CST SUN NOV 03 2013

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT SHOWING A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE
ON MONDAY ACROSS THE WRN STATES MOVING TOWARD THE ROCKIES BY 12Z
TUESDAY. WITH THE APPROACH/DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROUGH...THE CURRENT
TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NRN ROCKIES TO GREAT BASIN WILL PROGRESS
NEWD FROM THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NRN ONTARIO DURING DAY 2. THE
CHANGES IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN NEUTRAL HEIGHT
CHANGES ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WHILE WEAK FALLS SHOULD
OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST.

...SRN ROCKIES TO CENTRAL PLAINS...
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN ROCKIES AS
SOME COOLING AROUND 500 MB AIDS IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. WEAK
INSTABILITY AND EXPECTED ISOLATED COVERAGE OF TSTMS CONTINUE TO
PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

FARTHER E...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LACK OF STRONGER FORCING FOR
ASCENT...GIVEN WEAK TO NEUTRAL HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WAA WITHIN THE NOSE OF A
STRENGTHENING LLJ AND LOW LEVEL MOISTENING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FACTORS SUPPORTING ELEVATED CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT FROM SERN CO
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE PRESENCE OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND WEAK
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MONDAY NIGHT WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF WAA AIDED
CONVECTION SUGGESTS ELEVATED UPDRAFTS SHOULD HAVE LIMITED ABILITY TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE HAIL. THUS...THIS OUTLOOK WILL
MAINTAIN A LESS THAN 5 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS.

..PETERS.. 11/03/2013

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