DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 040531
SWODY2
SPC AC 040530

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 PM CST SUN NOV 03 2013

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS
TUESDAY AS STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ON DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF
TROUGH FROM NEB INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ASSIST THE
PROGRESSION OF MORE NRLY SHORT-WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FARTHER SOUTH...TROUGHING IS
EXPECTED TO LAG ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION WHICH SHOULD APPROACH
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A RIBBON OF
WARM ADVECTION...DRIVEN BY FOCUSED LLJ...WILL GENERATE ELEVATED
CONVECTION ACROSS KS TOWARD SERN NEB. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE DUE
TO FOCUSED ASCENT WITHIN MARGINAL BUOYANCY THEN TRANSLATE TOWARD THE
MID MS VALLEY AS LLJ SHIFTS INTO THIS REGION. AN EXTENSIVE CORRIDOR
OF FRONTAL PRECIPITATION/EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
DURING THE PERIOD WITH A SEWD SHIFT TO THE PRECIP SHIELD BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE ONLY REGION OF POTENTIAL CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS ALONG THE ERN PLUME OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
THAT WILL GENERATE OVER ERN NM/TX PANHANDLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SFC TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 70S AS BOUNDARY
LAYER DEEPENS AND FLOW VEERS INTO THE SW. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
ARE NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 70S ACROSS THIS REGION AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINED ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THE
MAIN IMPEDIMENT TO ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION
IS THE EXPECTED MARGINAL SBCAPE...ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. HAVE
INTRODUCED 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL WITH ANY ROBUST UPDRAFTS THAT CAN EVOLVE IN
PROXIMITY TO THIS STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING WILL PROVE DETRIMENTAL TO SFC BASED CONVECTION AND TSTMS
WILL BECOME ELEVATED AS THEY SPREAD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARD
SWRN OK/NWRN TX DURING THE MID EVENING HOURS.

..DARROW.. 11/04/2013

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