DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 040813
SWODY3
SPC AC 040811

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 AM CST MON NOV 04 2013

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TX...

LAGGING PIECE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE SRN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY ENCOURAGING SFC PRESSURES TO BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS
DRIVING A COLD FRONT DEEP INTO TX EARLY IN THE PERIOD. VERY MOIST
AIR MASS...BUT WEAKLY BUOYANT WITH MARGINAL LAPSE RATES...WILL PROVE
CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SUGGEST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
OF CAPE MAY PROVIDE ADEQUATE BUOYANCY FOR UPDRAFTS TO PENETRATE
LEVELS NECESSARY FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LIGHTNING WITHIN THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL/SOUTH TX.

FARTHER NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT...WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE NOTED
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPDRAFTS WILL REMAIN
TOO SHALLOW TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR LIGHTNING NORTH OF
I-20.

..DARROW.. 11/04/2013

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